
‘Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.’ Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1957
‘Take A Chance On Me.’ Benny Andersson and Björn Ulvaeus, 1977
The Greek writer Herodotus (484-425 BCE) also known as ‘The Father of History,’ wrote of his contemporaries, the Ancient Persians:
“If an important decision is to be made, they discuss the question when they are drunk, and the following day the master of the house where the discussion was held submits their decision for reconsideration when they are sober. If they still approve it, it is adopted; if not, it is abandoned. Conversely, any decision they make when they are sober, is reconsidered afterwards when they are drunk.”
As organisations across the world polish up their crystal balls, and try to scope out models on which to base their decision-making (e.g. Trump, Tariffs and Taxes) or across The Business of Pleasure (e.g. Premiers, Dynamic-Pricing and Pantos) they could do worse than learn from the Satraps of Susa (the Imperial Persian C-Suite) and remember that we don’t always have complete access to all the data we have access to...
Are we asking the right questions? In the right order? How fresh is our data? And how clean? Are we seeing correlation or causation? What is important and what might become important? Is this a blip or a trend (or a dagger) we see before us? A one-off behaviour or a seasonally repeated event that we can set the clocks by for years to come? Etc. Etc. Etc.
Indeed, more ‘etceteras’ than the King of Siam on Palace Laundry Day, even before we try to allow for the 200+ recorded human biases.
And all the while, a little voice in our head (aka the voice of experience) is telling us that we may have very subtly (and almost totally subconsciously) concealed a crucial piece of information behind one or more logical blind-spots (deductive, inductive or abductive) that will come back to bite us on the backside in the days, months (or decades!) to come. Time is always limited. And there will always be new demands on our attention to compete with the task at hand. And new complexities cropping up daily (and hourly) to consider. So at what point do we take that long, deep breath, exhale slowly, and draw our line in the sand? And how can we be sure that we have as complete a picture as possible at that moment? That we are really dealing from a full deck? Some people employ trusted sounding boards among peers, colleagues and spouses (or pets). Others may go on long walks (or runs) or play a particular piece of music that has worked for them in the past…
And of course you don’t necessarily need to get ****ed as a fart like Herodotus’ Persians.
In fact, why not just sleep on it?
One ‘great’ figure from history (legend has it) dumbfounded his military commanders, on the very eve of battle, by announcing that he was off to bed. His troops were outnumbered five-to-one (by the aforementioned, thirsty Persians) and the entire fate of Western Civilisation lay on his shoulders… but he was feeling r-e-a-l-l-y s-l-e-e-p-y. The Persians had created the greatest empire the ancient world had seen (…UP UNTIL THAT MORNING) but when the rested and refreshed twenty-two-year-old finally got up from his eggy soldiers he had a plan fully-hatched for the battle ahead. And no way were they going to have him for breakfast. The Boy Wonder totally out-thought and out-fought the Persian armies that day (at the Battle of Gaugamela, 331 BCE) and went on to establish an empire stretching all the way to India.
Who knows how different world history would be if Alexander The Great had stayed up all night trying nail down all the theoretical variables?
Or whether a few more glasses of mead might have given the Persians the edge?
Either way, it’s always a good idea to have your story straight, just in case things don’t go according to plan. The note below was scribbled down by another Supreme Commander, who also had the fate of Western Civilisation on his shoulders, General Dwight D. Eisenhower, 6 June, 1944, the morning of D-Day:
“Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based on the best information available. The troops, the air and the Navy did all that bravery and devotion to duty could do. If any fault or blame attaches to the attempt it is mine alone.”
Fortunately (very fortunately) for us, the note remained in his brief-case.
DT 16 Jan 2025
*For many ancient academics, Herodotus was alternatively known as ‘The Master of Lies,’ on account of some of his more far-fetched accounts. But then again, academics throughout the
ages just love to backbite
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